Moving now into the Southeast Region, I will analyze a potential upset victim from that regional. Once again, the 4 seed versus the 13 seed matchup shows a glaring mismatch.
The upset victim here could be the Wisconsin Badgers. While critics can argue that the Atlantic Sun Conference is completely different from the Big Ten, one aspect is clear: Wisconsin has difficulty scoring points. Their inability to score was shown in their last game, a 36-33 loss to Penn State. This season, the Badgers rank 192nd nationally in points per game, and an ugly 299th in rebounds per game. These statistics show that the Badgers have difficulty scoring, and do not rebound their misses well to allow themselves opportunities for second-chance points.
They will face a Belmont Bruins squad which amassed a 30-4 overall record this season, including a one-point loss to a tournament team in Tennessee. Belmont has proved that they can play with the power schools. Also, the Bruins rank in the top 50 nationally in both points per game (11th) and field goal percentage (45th). The Bruins shoot over 46% from the floor, including 38% from beyond the arc. If the Bruins establish the tempo early in the game, Wisconsin could find themselves behind rather quickly. The Bruins do not fit the typical mold of a mid-major team in that they are comfortable matching team bucket for bucket rather than sticking with stifling defense to pull off an upset.
An aspect that could work against the Bruins is that their roster features only two seniors, but they possess the talent to potentially offset that statistic.
If the Bruins neutralize Badgers senior forward Jon Leuer, an upset is highly plauisble. If Leuer is taken out of Wisconsin's gameplan offensively, the Badgers will struggle to score and could see an early return to Madison.
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
West Region Upset Alert
Every NCAA tournament, there are a few teams that no one believes can win against a stronger opponent, only to cause the collective screams of millions of fans who have had their bracket busted by these teams. Generally, these upsets are pulled off by teams outside of the "Big 6" conference winning over a team from a "Big 6" conference. I will examine one team from each region who could be primed to be an upset victim at the hands of a surprise squad.
For the West Region, that team is the Texas Longhorns.
The Longhorns enter the tournament with a 27-7 overall record and the fourth seed in the West and they will play a 25-7 Oakland Grizzlies squad who were the champions of the Summit League and are a 13 seed. By simply taking a glance at the teams, Oakland would stand little to no chance against a team of Texas' stature. However, by looking at the numbers, the Grizzlies will be a tough out in the tournament. The Grizzlies rank second nationally in both points per game with 85.6, and field goal percentage at 49.4%. They play a non-conventional game for a mid-major when normalcy would call for a game in the low-60's to give the Grizzlies an opportunity to win. Additionally, the Grizzlies have shown that they can not only schedule difficult teams, they also have the ability to beat those teams. Earlier in the season, the Grizzlies upset then-seventh ranked Tennessee by seven, and lost to then-eighth ranked Michigan State by one point. Additionally, the Grizzlies are in the top 20 nationally in assists per game and rebounds per game, meaning that they wait for a open look and rebound when they miss. If the Grizzlies can take control early and prove that they can run with the Longhorns, they could pull off an upset.
It will take a special night for a 13 seed to knock off a 4 seed, but if Oakland plays to its potential, they have a chance to do so.
For the West Region, that team is the Texas Longhorns.
The Longhorns enter the tournament with a 27-7 overall record and the fourth seed in the West and they will play a 25-7 Oakland Grizzlies squad who were the champions of the Summit League and are a 13 seed. By simply taking a glance at the teams, Oakland would stand little to no chance against a team of Texas' stature. However, by looking at the numbers, the Grizzlies will be a tough out in the tournament. The Grizzlies rank second nationally in both points per game with 85.6, and field goal percentage at 49.4%. They play a non-conventional game for a mid-major when normalcy would call for a game in the low-60's to give the Grizzlies an opportunity to win. Additionally, the Grizzlies have shown that they can not only schedule difficult teams, they also have the ability to beat those teams. Earlier in the season, the Grizzlies upset then-seventh ranked Tennessee by seven, and lost to then-eighth ranked Michigan State by one point. Additionally, the Grizzlies are in the top 20 nationally in assists per game and rebounds per game, meaning that they wait for a open look and rebound when they miss. If the Grizzlies can take control early and prove that they can run with the Longhorns, they could pull off an upset.
It will take a special night for a 13 seed to knock off a 4 seed, but if Oakland plays to its potential, they have a chance to do so.
Monday, March 7, 2011
NCAA Tournament Surprise Teams
Each year a team from a conference other than the "Big 6" makes a run to the Sweet 16 or further. During the next few days, I will reveal a few teams from mid-major conferences who could be this year's shocker. The first team plays in the Colonial Athletic Association against the likes of George Mason and Virginia Commonwealth.
Old Dominion
The Monarchs boast a 27-6 overall record and are fresh off of a win in the CAA championship game versus VCU. As is a main factor in the ability to knock off higher-seeded opponents, ODU plays stifling defense and is a senior-laden squad. What teams from the power conferences have in All-American recruits, the Monarchs make up for in experience and limiting opposing teams to one shot on a trip down the floor, as they are eighth nationally in rebounding. That experience plays a key role as four of ODU's top five scorers are seniors with the lone exception being a junior. The Monarchs show great scoring balance meaning if one player is struggling, there are four or five other players who can shoot the ball effectively. ODU was in a similar position last season before defeating sixth-seed Notre Dame in the first round 51-50. Many of the same players who started in that game have returned making Old Dominion a serious threat to pull off another NCAA tournament upset. Regardless of who Old Dominion draws for the first round, it will be an exciting game as the Monarchs will take their opponent out of the their rhythm and cause a game in the low-60's making an upset bid increasingly likely.
While an first-round upset is never a guarantee, Old Dominion has a track record of success, and the experience and style of play to pull off such a feat.
Old Dominion
The Monarchs boast a 27-6 overall record and are fresh off of a win in the CAA championship game versus VCU. As is a main factor in the ability to knock off higher-seeded opponents, ODU plays stifling defense and is a senior-laden squad. What teams from the power conferences have in All-American recruits, the Monarchs make up for in experience and limiting opposing teams to one shot on a trip down the floor, as they are eighth nationally in rebounding. That experience plays a key role as four of ODU's top five scorers are seniors with the lone exception being a junior. The Monarchs show great scoring balance meaning if one player is struggling, there are four or five other players who can shoot the ball effectively. ODU was in a similar position last season before defeating sixth-seed Notre Dame in the first round 51-50. Many of the same players who started in that game have returned making Old Dominion a serious threat to pull off another NCAA tournament upset. Regardless of who Old Dominion draws for the first round, it will be an exciting game as the Monarchs will take their opponent out of the their rhythm and cause a game in the low-60's making an upset bid increasingly likely.
While an first-round upset is never a guarantee, Old Dominion has a track record of success, and the experience and style of play to pull off such a feat.
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